Smartphone growth to slow to a trickle in 2016, survey finds

The smartphone market will grow just 3.1 percent to 1.48 billion units this year, below the previous prediction of a 5.7 percent growth, according to the latest report from IDC.

In absolute terms, the researcher estimated original equipment manufacturers would ship 1.48bn devices in 2016, rising to 1.84bn by 2020.

IDC lowered its forecast due to the continued slowdown of smartphone sales in mature markets and China. By 2020, IDC expects Windows Phone to have a minute.4% of the global smartphone market.

Consumers are holding on to their handsets longer as operators move away from contracts and toward equipment installment plans (EIPs) and leasing programs. Meanwhile, many retail heavy markets are seeing a surge in the eTailer channel, better known as online marketplaces. This is a major slide as smartphone shipments enjoyed 10.5 percent growth in 2015 and 27.8 percent in 2014.

"Consumers everywhere are getting savvy about how and where they buy their smartphones, and this is opening up new doors for OEMs and causing some traditional channels to lose some control of the hardware flow", Ryan Reith, program director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said in a news release.

To him, that means, "Consumers are having more say over which brands they want and at the same time able to bargain shop". Phablets (phones with screens measuring 5.5-inches and larger) will produce double-digit growth through 2019 before slipping to growth of 9.2% in 2020.

IDC said Android's global dominance is likely to continue this year, with the Google-powered operating system in 84% of smartphones sold in 2016, up from 81% a year ago.

With Microsoft (MSFT) selling off its Nokia assets, the Windows Phone share, expected to be at just 0.8% this year, at 11.2%, is expected to drop to just 0.4% in 2020. Android continues to be the dominant platform in most markets and with Microsoft's ongoing struggles with Windows Phone, it should remain the go-to platform for affordability. However, the report predicts that the company's early trade-in programme, the lower-cost Apple iPhone SE and the growth of markets such as China, India and the Middle East could help turn things around for Apple. According to IDC, partner OEMs have been few and far between, and this announcement certainly won't change that.

Source: Smartphone growth to slow to a trickle in 2016, survey finds